
These words are splashed across the headlines, sounding doom, gloom, and fear– but it’s important to truly analyze the geopolitics at work here. Iran is threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. But what does this actually mean for the United States, which doesn’t receive oil directly from Iran?
IPAA’s chief economist, Fred Lawrence, broke it down in a Declaration of Independents analysis. Essentially, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important trade passageways in the world. The US Dept. of Energy defines the Strait as “the world’s most important oil chokepoint, with an average of 14 supertankers passing through it every day, most of them heading towards Japan, South Korea, India and China.”
Asia and Europe would feel this supply shock most of all because these are “two regions with growing import dependence on the Middle East.” Luckily for the United States, “Our total import dependence is declining. U.S. net imports have dropped from over 60 percent of our total consumption in 2005 to around 45 percent in 2011 through November…52 percent of our oil imports emanate from the Western Hemisphere.” This is due in large part to the increased shale oil reserves, made accessible by the combined technologies of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling.
Although the U.S. is clearly more insulated from Middle East supply shocks, we are far from isolated. The growing interdependence of global markets makes any economic hit to European or Asian markets a close second hit to the U.S. markets. As the analysis outlines,
“Given the current debilitated state of world markets, every bit of negative economic news from Europe or China exacts a toll on our recovering economic markets because they are two of our top trading partners. Any oil shock of this magnitude would pass quickly through the global business cycle as energy costs directly impact trade flows, industrial activity and consumer spending which comprises over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.”
Thus, the negative effects of a Strait of Hormuz shut-down would certainly hit the United States – although not as hard as it would hit Asia and Europe. In our globalized world, any drama featuring the remarkably strategic and crucial commodity of oil will have ripple affects felt the world over.
Click here to read the analysis and to view original charts and graphs.